Magazin On The Secrets Of Selling

Microsoft is a difficult situation for me to evaluate. I think the company still has a lot of growth ahead in some areas. But, that depends on where management wants to take it.

There are three core businesses that are already well developed: Windows, Office, and Servers.

The moat in the first two are wide. The Windows moat is huge.

The business model in operating systems is great. You keep upgrading every few years; the hardware needn’t progress for you to find things to tweak and get people to buy the next step up. It’s insanely profitable.

I think the new launch (Vista) will be bigger than people expect (eventually) in how it allows for cross selling other Microsoft products (but we’ll see about that). I expect the press to be very negative at least until well after the launch, because there will always be some bugs and delays.

Games

Eventually, video games will be a big business for Microsoft. I hate the economics of the console business, but love the economics of the publishing (and development) side of things.

I’m sorry to see that Microsoft didn’t use its cash pile to buy up an established business here (publishers were cheap in the market a few years ago; an all cash deal would have worked well. Now, everyone thinks video games will be the next big thing).

The console wars are going well for Microsoft. The two keys to establishing a dominant console are launching first and getting good games on your platform. We’ll see how Sony (SNE) does this round, but I expect them to be the big loser.

Nintendo may surprise here. I think the Xbox 360 and Nintendo’s new console (Wii) will do very well. It’ll be interesting to see the breakdown of the consoles in both the domestic and foreign markets. I think Sony may still be strong overseas, but could be in a much poorer position at the end of this round than they were with the PS2.

Search

Long-term I am optimistic about search. I think Google’s position is much weaker than most people think. I don’t think Microsoft will be the only one to benefit here.

Search is a very natural cross sell with Windows. That’s the direction everything seems to be headed in (combining online and desktop search). For future growth in terms of market share I think Microsoft is in a better position than either Yahoo (YHOO) or Google (GOOG).

I also think we might see a couple other (largely unknown) search engines gain some share.

I think Google’s strength is its brand. Its dominance helps with advertisers more than users. I don’t think it has a lock on users. Also, I think Google has been poorly positioned for doing much of anything outside of keyword search.

I expect to see a lot more in the way of intelligent, social search inspired stuff. Years from now, much of search will have to be helping you find what you didn’t know you wanted to find.

Google is dominant in a different business: helping you find what you know you want to find (but don’t know the name / location). The two types of search are very different. Both will be important, but the growth in other forms of search will be coming off a smaller base and will likely integrate with keyword search. Google has the most to lose here.

Other Devices

Microsoft wants to perform well on mobile devices and on your TV. Compared to competitors it is very strong in these respects.

The strategy seems to be the one I would favor - to control the point of initial contact wherever software is used and then to only venture into the actual application or content side of the business where it is highly profitable to do so. In video games it will be highly profitable. In other areas it is less likely to be very profitable.

I expect to see more generic, web-based applications. These will be less profitable for everyone. Office should hold up well, but not as well as Windows. Basically, Microsoft needs to take what it has in PCs and import that to TVs, Handheld Devices, Consoles, and the Web.

That should be the strategy. I think that is the strategy. These aren’t unrelated businesses that need to be broken up to unlock creativity (as some have suggested). Rather, the profit potential for each is greatly enhanced by being part of Microsoft. If you take these pieces apart they are worth very little. There would only be the three businesses I started off talking about and the console / games business.

Internationally, there is going to be natural growth for Microsoft’s dominant businesses. It won’t be a tremendous growth rate, but it will be strong and will require virtually no additional investment to secure.

Obsolescence Issues

Overall, I like the future for software a lot more than hardware, because the marginal gains in the quality of hardware will slow greatly in the years ahead.

The question isn’t what can be done mathematically in terms of increasing specs; it’s what that translates to for the user. We are reaching a point where the individual user will not directly see the benefits of increased hardware performance as clearly as he did in the past.

Much of the research that goes in to this area will only serve to bring down prices and benefit memory intensive businesses - it will not provide as much of a “wow” factor for the user anymore.

This is especially true in games. The situation in desktop applications is already such that improving the software design is where most gains will come from.

Computing power is simply not a scarce resource for most individuals sitting at home or in a cubicle. Advances will benefit some users a lot and will trickle down to the end user (often via the web) through fast responses and cheap services. But, that’s a barely noticeable change.

You’ll see something here akin to the kind of thing you see in the brokerage business. It won’t be obvious, because price competition will never be as great in software.

Generally, you’ll just see the prices for doing anything electronically come down. That’s very different from what we’ve seen over the last few decades, where you also had advancements that attracted new users, because they allowed developers to do something differently, not just more cheaply.

This is a very long-term trend I’m worried about. It could weigh heavily on a business like Dell (DELL), because PCs are actually quite durable; once the rate of obsolescence slows, sales will have to slow as the cycle lengthens.

Management

I think Microsoft’s management is absolutely the best in the business. In fact, I think it’s one of the best in any business.

It would be hard for me to find more than a handful of people I’d rather have managing a business I was part owner of. I also think the current arrangement is a good one.

There is enough of a line between current operations and future investments in the Chairman / CEO split that investors will probably get the greatest benefit from the brilliance of the Chairman this way.

Everyone underestimates Bill Gates. It’s easy, because his great triumph came some time ago now. But, he’s interested in building something lasting. I trust him more than anyone in tech without a question. He always impresses me whether he’s talking about his own industry or some other topic. He has exactly the right kind of mind for someone running a business where the long-run is such a concern.

Qualitatively, I think Microsoft scores close to perfectly. I could cite the profitability stats, but I won’t, because you know they’re better than almost any other business on the planet – and that’s with a huge siphoning off of resources to investments in the future that aren’t required to maintain the cash cow, wide-moat Windows franchise.

Valuation

Valuation is a bit more troubling. Microsoft is not at the point on an EV/EBIT basis where I’d be buying the stock if there was a risk of no extraordinarily profitable growth in the future. In other words, at the current price, it clearly makes for a bad bond.

The key is earnings growth. I think you have to believe MSFT will have a real future in search, games, and non-PC devices that will fuel future, highly profitable growth.

I think that future is there. As far as a truly large cap stock (say $10 billion or more) it’s about as attractive as anything on the planet right now - and certainly it’s the most attractive stock of any very large U.S. business. Even though Intel (INTC) and Dell are cheap looking, I don’t like them nearly as much. Dell is an interesting situation, but I don’t understand the business well enough.

I have a better idea of where MSFT is headed – and I like it.

Conclusion

I don’t own shares of MSFT. I won’t be buying any either. I don’t normally own such large stocks. I prefer much smaller businesses, because the mispricings tend to get more out of whack. You aren’t going to see MSFT trade at an EV/EBIT of 7.5 or something like that, but you do sometimes get those chances in small (high quality) businesses.

There are a lot of chances to find wild mispricings without much of the future being a concern. Those are the situations I prefer to invest in, because businesses like MSFT have an awfully large anchor with the amount of capital they’ve got – plus, they tend to be less likely to be wildly mispriced.

However, if I had to own one business with a market cap of more than $10 billion and hold it for a lifetime I would buy Microsoft here without hesitation.

Copyright 2006 Geoff Gannon

Geoff Gannon writes a daily value investing blog and produces a twice weekly (half hour) value investing podcast at:
http://www.gannononinvesting.com

Every year February 14th is celebrated as a day for love, exchange of gifts, promises of eternal passion, and more. The inspired pen poems inspired by their love and admiration for the women of their dreams while others just go to shops and buy commercially available verses.

Valentines means candy, chocolates, perfume, red hearts, balloons, and more. Have you ever wondered when the celebration first originated? Well in ancient Rome, February heralded the coming to spring a time for rejuvenation, fertility, and growth.

In ancient times, Romans celebrated in February a festival to honor the god of fertility who provided them with progeny and ensured a god crop. In Rome February 15th was celebrated as the feast of Lupercalla and Feb 14th as a holiday in honor of Juno the queen of Roman gods and goddesses. On the eve of Lupercalla a glass jar was filled to the brim with chits on which were penned the names of all eligible girls. Then young men would draw a chit each from the jar and the girl whose name was on the chit would be his partner for the celebration. This was a method by which ancient Romans introduced eligible boys and girls to one another.

Much later in the 3rd century BCE when Emperor Claudius II ruled Rome there lived a priest called Valentine. And when Claudius passed a decree that young men in his empire were not to marry, Valentine defied him and used to consecrate marriages secretly. He was sentenced to death and thrown into prison. While awaiting his execution Valentine penned a letter to his love and signed it “from your Valentine.” After his death Valentine became a martyr and saint and was popularly known as St Valentine.

Wonderful legends are woven around Valentine’s Day. In Wales young people exchanged as gifts wooden spoons which were hand carved with decorations of hearts and key holes. The decorations conveyed “you hold the key to my heart or you unlock my heart.” In other places women were given gifts of clothes and if they accepted the gift then it conveyed that they were wiling to marry the man who has sent the gift.

In 1415, Charles, the Duke of Orleans is known to have penned, from his prison in the tower of London , what were known as “poetical amorous addresses” to his wife in France, he is believed to be one of the earliest creators of valentines.

Just as companies like Hallmark sell cards for Valentines Day in the 15th century people bought little booklets with verse in them —they then made their own valentines using the verse to express their thoughts. For example a valentine could have the hand drawn illustration of a knight and his lady with Cupid the god of love shooting arrows into the knight’s heart.
In the US it was after 1723, that popularity of the celebration grew. People imported the “booklets of verse” all the way from England and copied the verses on to gilt edged papers. Then a Ms. Ester Howard in around 1830 decided to be original and create American Valentines that were marketed as Worcester Valentines.

Since then with changing centuries and tastes the celebration has taken on new hues with young men and women, children, as well as older couples creating newer ways to celebrate and declare their undying love.

Paul Wilson is a freelance writer for http://www.1888PressRelease.com/Lifestyle-0-24.html, the premier website to Submit Free Press Release for any announcements including launching of new product or services, new website, announcing new hires, sponsoring a special event or seminar and more. He also freelances for http://www.1888Articles.com/love-articles-178_19.html

Click fraud is becoming an ever increasing problem with pay per click search engine marketing. To define it simply, click fraud occurs when a person or automated computer program imitates a legitimate web browser by clicking on an ad for the purpose of generating fraudulent charges per click. There are a multitude of reasons why this may occur, such as competitors attempting to gain an upper hand, to the more likely scenario, which is website properties attempting to increase their commissions by generating bogus clicks from their sites. The purpose of this article is not to discuss how or why this is occurring, but rather what you as an advertiser can do to combat it.

Now what I am going to tell you is not rocket science, but a surprising number of advertisers fail to employ the most simple and effective of tools to mitigate their risk – click tracking. Most site owners who spend any serious amount of money in the form of pay per click advertising usually take the step to install conversion counting code on their sites, whether it’s the free stuff from Yahoo! or Google, to more sophisticated third party tracking tools.

The problem for many advertisers, is that although they may be tracking conversions and managing their pay per click campaigns with automated bidding tools, many, if not most of these tools lack the tracking data that allows the site owner to see details down to the click level, such as time of click, referring URL, IP address of the click, etc… Although many click fraud perpetrators employ tactics that hide or mask some of this data, such as IP address, having the ability to see this data can point out potential problems and allow you to nip it before it gets too far out of control.

Let me give you an example. Let’s say that you see traffic has picked up on a particular word that has been performing well historically for you, but conversions have not increased proportionately. An analysis of your click tracking logs may show an abundance of traffic spaced apart in fixed intervals, say every 10 minutes, or a particularly strange URL referring the traffic to your site. Data such as this can clearly point out a click fraud problem that may be occurring because of your bidding position, for example. Click fraud perpetrators love to target high cost per click ads showing in the top 3 positions. This particular keyword may have performed well in the 4th or 5th positions, but above this, you may find that it is a target for fraud.

Now if you are running an automated bid management program, you may argue that with decreasing conversions, your ad may be adjusted out of such a position in the example I just gave. Although this may be true, without the specific details of the clicks, you may have no idea as to why words are not performing well in certain positions, and you may not have the ammunition necessary to present your case to the search engines for a fraud investigation to occur. Without the knowledge of when and where your clicks are coming from, you are running a campaign with your eyes only half open.

The limited space in this forum does not allow us to go over the multitude of examples of how specific click tracking data can help you ferret out click fraud. However, the point here it to illustrate just how monitoring this kind of data can help you fight the kind of fraud that is occurring that can chip away at your precious advertising dollars and impact your ROI.

There are a number of products on the market that can help you analyze this data. If you are managing your own campaigns, you will find that it is an investment well spent. If you are outsourcing your pay per click advertising to a professional management company, then you should make sure that this data is available and analyzed by your account managers on a regular basis.

Brad Snedden is the founder and President of Sawtooth Marketing http://www.SawtoothMarketing.com - a provider of paid search engine marketing solutions.

When choosing a Caribbean charter yacht, there are three categories of yachts. They are power yachts, sailing yachts and multihull sailing yachts, such as catamarans and trimarans. You can also have a special Caribbean charter to learn about the art of sailing a yacht. This will give you the knowledge and training you need to charter a yacht all on your own without the need of a captain and crew. When you book a Caribbean charter yacht, you can browse the yacht catalog to choose the yacht that best meets your needs.

You can choose a Caribbean yacht charter that specializes in bringing passengers to the best scuba diving locations. This type of yacht has all the space you need for storing your equipment as well as staterooms and a dining room. If you are new to scuba diving, you can take lessons from the skilled crew of the Carribean yacht charter and get the instruction that you need. There are times when you can just relax on the deck of the Caribbean charter yacht or enjoy trips onshore to experience the true Caribbean culture.

The company you choose to deal with for your Caribbean yacht charter will supply you with a sample itinerary for a week long vacation. However, you don’t have to stick to this schedule and you can make different decisions where you want to travel on the Caribbean charter yacht. The Carribean islands you choose do have to be navigable and have appropriate anchorages and the captain will be able to give you advice about this aspect of the charter. You do charter the yacht yourself, so you won’t have to share your Caribbean yacht charter with another group.

There are occasions when you can book a Caribbean charter yacht where you do not know the other passengers. An example of this could be a singles only charter or a ladies only charter. Of course, you will know this when you make the booking for a Carribean yacht charter, but it is helpful to know that you can enjoy a yacht charter without having a group of your own lined up. While you might think that a Caribbean yacht charter is very expensive, but when you compare it with the cost of a vacation at a tropical resort, there is very little difference between the prices.

Fly to the island of St. Thomas to meet the Caribbean charter yacht. From there you can sail to the island of St. John and have a leisurely lunch on board the yacht. Spend some time swimming, walk along the beach and drink in the Caribbean sunset. When you arrive back at the yacht, there will be a scrumptious meal waiting for you. If this sounds like an idyllic vacation, there is a Caribbean charter yacht waiting for you to make your booking.

To find out more about Sailing Vacations visit Peter’s Website Your Sailing Vacation and find out about Caribbean Yacht Charters and more, including Luxury Yacht Charters, Crewed Yacht Charters, Bareboat Charters and Florida Charters.

How will credit card balance transfers affect my credit score and rating?

Transferring balance from a high interest credit card to a new lower interest
card can definitely save you money on interest, if nothing else at least until
the introductory rate ends (if applicable). We all receive those infamous credit
card offers in the mail, urging us to apply for a new card and transfer our high
interest balance over, in order to take advantage of the lower interest rate
that this new card has to offer.

This seems like a logical thing to do, right? I mean, lower interest rates on
your credit accounts equals more money in your pocket, true? Yes,
transferring your credit card balance from a high interest credit account to a
lower one is an excellent way to save money on interest, especially if you carry
a lot of debt on your credit card(s).

But how does this affect your credit rating and credit score?The answer to that question really depends on your
situation, and how you go about it.

A closer look

Lets say you have $5,000 in debt on a credit card account from “ABC
Credit Services”, which has a total credit line of $10,000. For this
example, lets just say this is currently your only open credit card
account. Since your debt takes up half of your total credit line, this would put
your percentage of debt compared to your credit line, for this account, at 50%.
We’ll call this your “debt percentage”.

You’re making payments to ABC with no problems and you seem happy with the
account and the interest rate. That is, until one day you check your mail, and
there it is, a credit card offer from “XYZ Credit Services” with a
fixed interest rate set at half of what you’re paying now with ABC! Suddenly
dollar signs start popping up in your head, and you start trying to figure out
how much money you could save by transferring your $5,000 balance to XYZ. You
then decide you’re going to apply for the account at XYZ. Your credit is good
right? No problem! You receive the card in a week or so, and go ahead with the
balance transfer.

So how does this affect my credit score?

How this balance transfer affects your credit rating and credit score really
depends on what you do from this point on, and also what your credit line is on
your new card from “XYZ”. If your credit line on your new card is
lower than that of the original “ABC” credit account, then your
“debt percentage” will be higher, which generally will lower your
credit score. This would be true if you closed the original account at ABC, and
kept your new account as your only open credit card account.

If you’ve had your “ABC” credit card for a while (maybe 2 years or
more), and you have a good payment history with them, then it will most likely
be in your best interest to keep that account open, even if you don’t use it.
Especially if your credit line with your new lower interest card is below
$10,000. Usually for the sake of your credit score, you don’t want to
increase your “debt percentage”, you want to decrease it.

For example, if you keep both accounts open, you will have a total credit
line of $20,000. With your $5,000 in debt on your new card, and your original
account at ABC having no balance, your debt percentage would only be 25%,
which is a good percentage and your credit score will reflect that.

Now reverse that and say that you closed your credit account from
“ABC”, given that your credit line at “XYZ” stays the same,
you would have a debt percentage of 50%, which is what you started out with in
the beginning. Add to that a newly acquired credit card with little or no
payment history on it, and you’re credit score would almost surely decrease, at
least until you establish a longer payment history on your new account.

So for this example, it would probably be best to keep both accounts open.
Your lower debt percentage could possibly offset the hit your score took from
obtaining your new credit card. And looking to the future, it should
look better on your credit report this way too.

Avoid increasing your debt percentage

When trying to keep your credit score as high as possible, try to avoid doing
anything to increase your debt percentage. Even though the amount of debt you
are carrying on your “revolving credit” is the same, it will always
look better if you’re using 25% of your total credit, compared to using up 50%
of it.

But don’t try too hard to decrease it either

Be sure not to take it too far by applying for more credit than you need,
just because you think it will help your credit score by having an even lower
debt percentage. Obtaining any new credit will generally bring down your credit
score slightly, at least for a short period of time. Applying for credit too much and too
often will almost always have a negative impact on your credit score, which
is exactly what you don’t want. Your time would be better spent on trying to
pay down this debt instead.

As with anything, being informed is the key

Balance transfers such as this can and will save you money on interest, if you do it
right. Stay informed about how things like this affect your credit, and you should be just fine!

Jake Rustenhoven is the webmaster of http://www.freebiecreditreport.com and the author of many other self-help and how-to articles related to credit reports and credit scores.

The cry of “I have no willpower!” often emerges from the consumers who jokingly surrender to their lack of will when it comes to eating something clearly unhealthy. However, scientific nutritional research has identified that something much more serious – much more dangerous – is often at work here. For many people, what they perceive as a harmless lack of willpower is actually an addiction an addiction to chemicals that the brain secretes in response to stimulation by certain foods, such as chocolate or cheese[i].

As dangerous as this addiction is, however, recent studies suggest that it is actually much more frightening than it first seems. According to one notable study, the human brain can release dopamine, which is a neurotransmitter linked with feelings enjoyment, when a person merely sees or smells certain foods[ii]. As such, people who may be sensibly avoiding foods that release serotonin and other chemicals (such as chocolate) may still be susceptible to a sight and smell-based addiction to unhealthy food.

Understanding this complex problem begins with understanding the word addiction. Defining a clear-cut definition of addiction is in itself a challenge and a rather hotly debated pursuit at the moment. Still, there is enough unity among credible social and biological scientists to say that a person who is powerless to stop an action is addicted[iii]. When applying this rather grave concept to eating, it becomes starkly clear that choosing an extra slice of pizza or bar of chocolate may be the expression of a very serious addiction to unhealthy food.

Remarkably, unlike how addictions to things like alcohol, drugs, and sexual activity viewed biological and psychological illnesses, addiction to eating is often ignored or, at the very least, diminished to be something that is based on willpower. The insulting advice of “just don’t eat it if you don’t want to get fat!” that some obese people actually hear from their doctors, relatives, or colleagues is one of the most common manifestations of this often well-meaning, but potentially harmful, ignorance.

The bottom line fact – and one that more medical professionals are accepting based on scientific evidence – is that obesity and related eating disorders are often the results of an addiction they are a serious health condition that must be approached methodologically like other diseases[iv].

Understanding that food addiction is indeed a problem – a severe disease, in fact – is a fundamental key in addressing this unique health challenge. At the same time, the notion of “willpower” should be removed, in most cases, from the eating disorder vocabulary, and replaced with the word “addiction”. This will make that extra piece of pizza or that third slice of chocolate cake be seen for what they often are: the means to satisfy a bonafide addiction.

Once the “eating disorder as an addiction” paradigm is in place, then and only then can both unhealthy eaters and those supporting them take steps to solve the problem. While there are no overnight solutions, there are paths that eaters can take that head in the right direction: freedom from eating addiction. The first step on this path is to eat a complete and balanced source of nutrition.

Taking this first step, like so much else associated with the addiction to unhealthy food, is easier said than done. Eating sensibly is unusually difficult in a time-starved culture and even more difficult when there are arrays of self-described nutritious dietary sources to choose from. Whether it is energy bars or fad diets, finding a simple, convenient, and practical source of balanced nutrition is hard to find.

However, some exceptional products are garnering serious positive attention from scientific community. These products deliver complete protein in a vitamin enriched formula. Furthermore – and of critical value – is that these products contain no carbohydrates, no unsaturated fat, and few calories none of which are from fat. These products are helping people unchain themselves from food addictions, and reflect a trend towards nutritious and ethical nutritional supplement manufacturing.

Of ultimate importance, however, is that these products return eating choice control back to where it must always remain: with conscious and empowered consumers, and not to some hidden and potentially destructive addiction.

About Protica

Founded in 2001, Protica, Inc. is a nutritional research firm with offices in Lafayette Hill and Conshohocken, Pennsylvania. Protica manufactures capsulized foods, including Profect, a compact, hypoallergenic, ready-to-drink protein beverage containing zero carbohydrates and zero fat. Information on Protica is available at www.protica.com. You can also learn about Profect at www.profect.com.

References

[i] Source: “That’s Why We Call it Junk Food”. MSNBC.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3606198/

[ii] Source: “Food on the Brain”. Forbes.com. http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/free_forbes/2005/0110/063.html

[iii] Source: “Addiction”. eHealth Connection.
http://www.ehealthconnection.com/regions/ehealth/health_information/
00036220.asp

[iv] Source: “Obesity as a Disease”. MPR News.
http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2004/03/29_bensonl_desease/

Copyright 2004 - Protica Research - http://www.protica.com